Hi there! I’m Andrew.
I work at the University of Munich. My research focuses on sources of human capital and labor market inequality. I’m also really interested in microeconometric methods that help us answer these questions.
You can find me at:
Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich
Chair of Empirical Economic Research
Ludwigstraße 33 80539 München
Germany
Research
Published Work
Crowdsourcing hypothesis tests: Making transparent how design choices shape research results (with Justin Landy et al)
To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer five original research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from 2 separate large samples (total N > 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete 1 version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: Materials from different teams rendered statistically significant effects in opposite directions for 4 of 5 hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = −0.37 to + 0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for 2 hypotheses and a lack of support for 3 hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, whereas considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.
Publication Ungated PDF
Work in Progress
A Simplified Klein–Spady Estimator for Binary Choice Models (with Per Hjertstrand and Joakim Westerlund)
One of the most cited studies within the field of binary choice models is that of Klein and Spady (1993), in which the authors propose an estimator that is not only non-parametric with respect to the choice density but also asymptotically efficient. However, while theoretically appealing, the estimator has been found to be very difficult to implement with poor small-sample properties. This paper proposes a simplified version of the Klein–Spady estimator, which is shown to be easy to implement, numerically relatively more stable, and with excellent small-sample and asymptotic properties. Draft
Did the apple fall far from the tree? Uncertainty and learning about ability with family-informed priors
This study examines the effect of uncertainty and learning about ability on intergenerational correlations in education and labor market outcomes, when children and their parents utilize family signals to inform initial beliefs about ability. I examine this question by using a cohort study and rich administrative data to estimate a dynamic discrete choice structural model of education and occupational decisions, incorporating multidimensional skills and ability endowments, as well as uncertainty and learning about ability, starting from a family-driven prior. Draft
Careers of the Extremely Intelligent (with Erik Lindqvist, Jonas Vlachos and Joacim Tåg)
We study the charateristics and career outcomes of men at the very high end of the cognitive ability distribution, using population-level data on 1.2 million Swedish men. The share of men who major in a STEM field, attain a PhD, pursue careers in IT, R&D and academia, and work in innovative firms increase throughout the distribution of cognitive ability. In contrast, wages are non-monotonic in cognitive ability – increasing up to approximately the 99.9th percentile of cognitive ability but falling thereafter. The decline is partly explained by falling non-cognitive ability at the high end of the distribution of cognitive ability and partly by men with extreme cognitive ability choosing less lucrative career paths. Studying changes over time, we document increasing returns to top cognitive ability from 1990 to 2001 and falling returns thereafter up to 2015. The fall in the returns to top cognitive ability coincides with growing employment in cognitively demanding tasks – suggesting falling demand is not enough to explain falling returns. Instead, our results point to a dramatic increase in the supply of men with IT-relevant education as a key factor behind falling returns to top cognitive ability.
Socio-economic background and beliefs about the consumption value of education (with Arnaud Maurel)
Recent work has emphasized that education and career decisions are decided not only on the basis of expected financial returns, but also critically depend on the expected non-pecuniary enjoyment derived from these choices. Yet nearly all such analyses have treated the non-pecuniary consumption value of choices as known ex-ante by the agent, when in practice many of these components are not directly observable. Both the content and precision of these beliefs thus may depend on whether the agent has role models or peers that have experience with a prospective choice, and if so, what these experiences were like. This study examines how beliefs about non-pecuniary aspects of future educational decisions vary by socio-economic background, how these beliefs evolve, and how closely these beliefs correspond to subsequent experiences. This analysis is performed using detailed longitudinal data on students’ educational experiences and elicited beliefs about future educational experiences for a large sample of Swedish youth. Structural analysis will then consider how heterogeneous and potentially misspecified beliefs about the non-pecuniary enjoyment of education affects the educational investment and sorting decisions of youth differentially by socio-economic background.
Gender differences in perceived abilities and career sorting (with Shubhaa Bhattacharyya and Patrizia Massner)
Despite the increase in female labor force participation over the last decades, occupations and college majors continue to exhibit high levels of segregation between genders. Do gendered biases in beliefs about abilities affect this career sorting? In this study, we investigate the role of gender differences in self-perceived abilities on human capital investment paths, such as choice of subject in upper secondary schooling and the choice of college major. Using nationally representative panel survey data from the Evaluation Through Follow-Up (ETF) Study in Sweden, we document the presence of large gender-biases in self-perceptions of subject-specific ability by gender. We explore the magnitude and consequences of gender-biased beliefs for career sorting by structurally estimating a dynamic model of human capital investments that incorporates limited information about ability, with ability beliefs that may deviate from rational expectations through biased beliefs. By estimating the structural model using longitudinal ETF survey data matched to Swedish administrative data, we examine the extent to which gender-specific biases in self-perceived abilities can explain educational and occupational sorting in the Swedish labor market.
Education
PhD in Economics, Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden)
MSc in Econometrics, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands)
BA in History, Furman University (USA)
